Infidels Paradise

Rasmussen Reports:

Election 2010: Florida GOP Senate Primary
2010 Florida GOP Senate Primary: Crist 43%, Rubio 43%

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Governor Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio are now tied in the 2010 race for the Republican Senate nomination in Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP Primary voters finds Crist and Rubio each with 43% of the vote. Five percent (5%) prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Crist’s support has fallen from 53% in August to 49% in October. Rasmussen Reports noted at the time, “The fact that Crist has fallen below 50% in a primary against a lesser known opponent suggests potential vulnerability.”

Rubio’s name recognition has grown in recent months and he is now viewed Very Favorably by 34% of Likely Primary Voters. That’s up from 18% in August. As his name recognition increased, Rubio’s support in the polls has jumped from 31% in August to 43% today.

Crist, well known throughout the state, has seen his ratings go in the opposite direction. Just 19% now have a Very Favorable opinion of him, a figure that represents a double digit decline since August.

Crist angered many conservatives in the state when he embraced President Obama’s $787-billion economic stimulus plan. While the Republican establishment has endorsed Crist, many prominent GOP conservatives including Mike Huckabee, South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint and former Bush adviser Karl Rove are backing Rubio.

Nationally, the GOP’s Florida Senate race is being watched as a test of the new “Tea Party” mood among many conservative and traditionally Republican voters. The GOP Primary is scheduled for August 24.

Rubio now leads by 12 points among men but trails among women voters by 11.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of conservatives favor Rubio. In October, Crist still had support from just over half the conservative primary voters.

Both men are vying to be the Republican nominee in next year’s race to fill the seat vacated by retiring GOP Senator Mel Martinez. In August, Crist as governor named his chief of staff, George LeMiuex, to serve the remainder of Martinez’s term, but LeMieux is not running for a full term next year.

Crist and Rubio both have been running ahead of their most likely Democratic challenger, Congressman Kendrick Meek, in general election polling. Rasmussen Reports will release its latest match-up numbers for next year’s Senate race on Wednesday morning.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of likely GOP Primary voters approve of Crist’s performance as governor. Forty-three percent (43%) disapprove of the job he is doing. These numbers are virtually unchanged from October and don’t represent particularly strong support by voters for a governor from their own party. Only 11% Strongly Approve while 15% Strongly Disapprove.

Republican candidates have a seven-point lead over Democrats in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot. That means 44% say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would choose his or her Democratic opponent.

However, if a Tea Party candidate is in the race, the picture changes dramatically. A separate, three-way Generic Ballot test finds that Democrats attract 36% of the vote, while the Tea Party candidate picks up 23% and Republicans finish third at 18%.

Rasmussen Reports has aleady released data this month on the 2010 U.S. Senate races in Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Colorado, Illinois and Arkansas.