Predators Terminate With Extreme Prejudice and Accuracy In Pakistan
October 1st, 2009 | 
Author: 
(Meet “Reaper”)
Note: This is an updated analysis of the US air campaign in Pakistan. The first look at the data was published on July 21, 2009. Two new charts, “Casualties from Predator strikes inside Pakistan: Civilian vs. Taliban/Al Qaeda,” and “Number of HVTs killed in territories of various Taliban factions,” have been added.
Analysis: A look at US airstrikes in Pakistan through September 2009
By Bill Roggio and Alexander Mayer
In August and September of 2009, the US covert air campaign in Pakistan’s lawless, Taliban-controlled tribal agencies scored four high value al Qaeda and Taliban targets. The deaths of Pakistani Taliban leader Baitullah Mehsud and three senior al Qaeda leaders have helped to fuel the push for increasing the role of strikes in Pakistan. The US is now urging Pakistan to take on the Quetta Shura, led by Mullah Omar, and other targets in Baluchistan, and has considered expanding the air campaign outside Pakistan’s tribal areas.
[...]
The US has continued to keep the pressure on al Qaeda in Pakistan’s tribal areas, and the attack tempo has remained high relative to the number of attacks carried out from June 2004 through July 2008. Since the first recorded strike in June of 2004 that killed Taliban commander Nek Mohammed, there have been 87 US strikes inside Pakistan. Seventy-six of these attacks have taken place since January 2008.
Beginning in August 2008, the US began stepping up strikes against Taliban and al Qaeda elements in the tribal agencies. There were 28 airstrikes in the tribal agencies between August and December 2008 – nearly three times the total number of airstrikes in the previous four years combined. There was one recorded strike in 2004, one in 2005, three in 2006, and five in 2007.
[...]
So far this year, the US has already exceeded the total number of airstrikes carried out in all of 2008. There were 36 recorded strikes in 2008, compared to 42 strikes from Jan. 1 to Sept. 29, 2009.
[...]
The lethality of Predator strikes inside the tribal agencies has also continued to increase during 2009. Using low-end estimates of casualties (including Taliban, al Qaeda, and civilian) from US strikes inside Pakistan, we have determined that airstrikes resulted in 317 deaths during 2008. Already, the airstrikes in 2009 have surpassed that total, with 447 killed in 2009 as of Sept. 29, 2009.
[...]
Despite the sharp increase in both the frequency and total number of casualties resulting from Predator strikes since mid-2008, civilian casualties have remained very low. Naturally, it is difficult to determine the exact number of civilians killed in Predator strikes for many reasons – including intentional exaggeration by Taliban spokesmen, and vague accounts by Pakistani media sources which frequently report that a certain number of “people” were killed in a strike, but rarely offer a follow-up report identifying which victims were civilians and which were militants. However, it is possible to get a rough estimate of civilian casualties by adding up the number of civilians reported killed from the media accounts of each attack. According to this method, a total of 94 civilians were reported killed as a result of all strikes between 2006 and September 29, 2009.
[...]
List of High Value Targets killed in Pakistan since 2004
Killed in 2009:
Ilyas Kashmiri The operations commander of the Harakat-ul-Jihad-Islami and the operations chief of Brigade 313. Date killed: September 14, 2009
Najmuddin Jalolov
The leader of the Islamic Jihad Group, a breakaway faction of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan. Najmuddin was closely allied with al Qaeda.
Date killed: September 14, 2009
Maulvi Ismail Khan
A military commander in the Haqqani Network.
Date killed: September 8, 2009
Mustafa al Jaziri
A senior military commander for al Qaeda who sits on al Qaeda’s military shura.
Date killed: September 7, 2009
Baitullah Mehsud
The overall leader of the movement of the Taliban in Pakistan.
Date killed: August 5, 2009
Kifayatullah Anikhel
A Taliban commander under Baitullah Mehsud.
Date killed: July 7, 2009
Mufti Noor Wali
Suicide bomber trainer for the Taliban and al Qaeda.
Date killed: July 3, 2009
Khwaz Ali Mehsud
A senior deputy to Baitullah Mehsud.
Date killed: June 23, 2009
Abdullah Hamas al Filistini
A senior al Qaeda trainer.
Date killed: April 1, 2009
Osama al Kini (aka Fahid Mohammed Ally Msalam)
Al Qaeda’s operations chief for Pakistan who was wanted for the 1998 bombings against the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
Date killed: January 1, 2009
Sheikh Ahmed Salim Swedan
A senior aide to Osama al Kini who was wanted for the 1998 bombings against the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.
Date killed: January 1, 2009
Killed in 2008:
Abu Zubair al Masri Served as an explosive expert for al Qaeda as well as a leader. Date killed: November 21, 2008
Abdullah Azzam al Saudi
Served as liaison between al Qaeda and the Taliban operating in Pakistan’s northwest. Azzam facilitated al Qaeda’s external operations network. He also served as a recruiter and trainer for al Qaeda.
Date killed: November 19, 2008
Abu Jihad al Masri
The leader of the Egyptian Islamic Group and the chief of al Qaeda’s intelligence branch, and directed al Qaeda’s intelligence shura. He directed al Qaeda’s external operations in Egypt.
Date killed: October 31, 2008
Khalid Habib
The commander of the Lashkar al Zil or the Shadow Army, al Qaeda’s paramilitary forces in Pakistan’s northwest and Afghanistan.
Date killed: October 16, 2008
Abu al Hasan al Rimi
A senior al Qaeda operative.
Date killed: October 2008 – exact date unknown
Abu Ubaidah al Tunisi
An al Qaeda military commander who fought against the Russians in Afghanistan.
Date killed: September 17, 2008
Abu Musa
An al Qaeda operative from Saudi Arabia.
Date killed: September 8, 2008
Abu Qasim
An al Qaeda operative from Egypt.
Date killed: September 8, 2008
Abu Hamza
An explosives expert from Saudi Arabia who served as al Qaeda’s commander in Peshawar.
Date killed: September 8, 2008
Abu Haris
A senior al Qaeda military commander from Syria who led more than 250 Arab and Afghan fighters under the guise of the Jaish al Mahdi in Helmand province. He became al Qaeda’s operations chief in the tribal areas in 2008.
Date killed: September 8, 2008
Abu Wafa al Saudi
An al Qaeda commander and logistician.
Date killed: September 4, 2008
Abdul Rehman
A local Taliban commander in the Wana region in South Waziristan.
Date killed: August 13, 2008
Abu Khabab al Masri
The chief of al Qaeda’s weapons of mass destruction program and a master bomb maker.
Date killed: July 28, 2008
Abu Mohammad Ibrahim bin Abi al Faraj al Masri
A religious leader, close to Abu Khabab al Masri.
Date killed: July 28, 2008
Abdul Wahhab al Masri
A senior aide to Abu Khabab al Masri.
Date killed: July 28, 2008
Abu Islam al Masri
Aide to Abu Khabab al Masri.
Date killed: July 28, 2008
Abu Sulayman Jazairi
The chief of al Qaeda’s external network. Jazairi was a senior trainer, an explosives expert, and an operational commander tasked with planning attacks on the West.
Date killed: March 16, 2008
Dr. Arshad Waheed (aka Sheikh Moaz)
A mid-level al Qaeda leader.
Date killed: May 14, 2008
Abu Laith al Libi
Senior military commander in Afghanistan and the leader of the reformed Brigade 055 in al Qaeda’s paramilitary Shadow Army.
Date killed: January 29, 2008
Killed in 2007:
No senior al Qaeda or Taliban leaders or operatives were reported killed during the strikes in 2007.
Killed in 2006:
Liaquat Hussain Second-in-command of the Bajaur TNSM. Date killed: October 30, 2006
Imam Asad
Camp commander for the Black Guard, al Qaeda’s elite bodyguard for Osama bin Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri. Asad was a Chechen with close links to Shamil Basayev.
Date killed: March 1, 2006
Killed in 2005:
Abu Hamza Rabia
Al Qaeda’s operational commander. He was involved with two assassination plots against Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf.
Date killed: December 1, 2005
Killed in 2004:
Nek Mohammed
A senior Taliban commander in South Waziristan who had links to Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar.
Date killed: June 18, 2004
Posted in 
Loading ...